Why clubs should think long-term

Bloody obvious, innit

Photo by Markus Spiske temporausch.com from Pexels

This is officially spinning into a series, so you might want to read part 1 and part 2 before reading the rest, but it doesn’t matter all that much.

What I’m trying to do with these posts is develop an order of operations for clubs to establish a culture in which every decision—everything from ticket prices down through the starting XI on a given Saturday—is made with the clubs best long-term interests at heart.

This is not meant to be a literal order of operations, mind you. Rather, I want to show the logical steps to a) recognizing there is a problem, b) identifying a possible solution or solutions to the problem and c) putting that solution in place.

Today, I want to get into why having a set of mid-to-long-term objectives and an understanding of the means to meet those objectives will ensure clubs get the most out of their non-player hires, everyone from the executives on down through to the tea lady (do clubs still hire tea ladies?).

This is particularly important because, at the moment, a lot of clubs rely on name recognition and experience alone when hiring, say, a manager. They will then either rely on the manager to bring in their own people to fill out crucial roles, or make other hires (chief scout, head physio etc.) without ensuring they share the same philosophy and objectives as the person in charge (usually the manager).

This is not a good approach, for what I hope are obvious reasons! If your chief scout is into recruiting players of a certain profile that your manager has no interest in, this is a problem.

But I want to illustrate why having a solid set of long-term objectives and philosophy is so effective, with a made-up example I used last week:

So, for example, perhaps a League One side’s business objective is break even for three consecutive seasons, and improve attendances at the ground by x amount each season. Promotion to the Championship is something to hope for, but based on recent years’ results, is likely not a realistic goal, and should not be attempted in the short-term at the risk of the club’s long-term financial stability.

Though this is fairly threadbare on its own, it’s still more than enough to spin out a fairly rigorous hiring process from the top-down.

For instance, this club will want to hire a manager with experience working within a limited budget, a good motivator, but also not a stifling pragmatist (wouldn’t every team want this person?). Relying on known names with English-experience isn’t likely going to cut it. If this club is serious, it will need to take a risk and broaden their search to the continent and perhaps even overseas (of course, having a director of football in place to oversee them will mitigate this risk a great deal and soften the blow of an unexpectedly early sacking). It may need to seek outside help from a consultancy to get this hire right.

From there, the club might want to invest in a physio who specializes in injury prevention, rather than merely getting the most exertion possible from their players week-in, week-out (recall this team doesn’t realistically anticipate or desire instant promotion). It may want a scout with a good track record of decent finds in affordable leagues, one willing to take their time to ensure a good fit (remember, this team is looking to be financially sustainable, not a world-beater overnight).

On the business side, because the club is not aiming for promotion to solve its attendance problems, it will need to hire staff who can seek out other ways to encourage fans to attend weekend fixtures. Perhaps this includes investing in a social account that punches above its station, offering fans exclusive access. Or maybe it means taking a much more proactive, community-based approach to marketing the team (not just pub/fan meetup events). This won’t pack the ground, but it may provide marginal gains that add up throughout the season (and help smooth over the inevitable drop during rough patches).

Clubs should also make as much of their strategy public as possible because it will also draw quality hires to them, including analysts convinced they can help the club pick up three or four extra points a season by making a few small on-pitch changes. And the team will be ready for them with a set of clear questions related to their own specific needs and resources (which may or may not be suitable for the abilities and skills of a prospective hire, who maybe arrives expecting to have a suite of Opta event data waiting for them).

The ripple effect of having a basic 3-5 season strategy in place should be clear. You hire to fit your framework, and those hires hire below them to best assist them in meeting these objectives. Having clear objectives might force your staff to be imaginative not only in the kind of person you look to fill a certain subsidiary role (assistant scout, GK trainer, whatever) but even swapping or adding new roles, roles that might be unique among your peers in the league.

None of this is a guarantee your club will meet its 5-year objectives, but at the very least a basic strategy forces you to think clearly and carefully about who you hire and why. Nor should your strategy be too rigid. Perhaps your club strikes it big, goes on a lucky run, and wins promotion. In that case, much of their strategy will need to change, as the goal of maximizing its time in the Championship is far different than breaking even in League One.

I’ll conclude this miniseries here and get back to talking about regular public analytics work next week, but I want to use this as a platform to discuss in frank teams how relevant this public analytics work might be to most clubs based on this idea of a long-term strategy.